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Canada Core CPI m/m April 21 2021

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  • Canada Core CPI m/m April 21 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

    A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


    Historic deviations and their outcome

    March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.c...s=EURCAD;r=S30

    February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.c...s=EURCAD;r=S30




    I will use forecasts of:

    CPI (M/M) 0.6
    CPI (Y/Y) 2.3
    CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.4
    CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.1
    CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.0



    Today's trade plan

    We hope that as we move forward, this data will become more interesting to the market. However, we may not be there yet.

    Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
    Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation that will bring us safety and profit.


    Tradable pairs

    EURCAD
    GBPCAD
    USDCAD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

  • #2
    Core CPI was nowhere near the deviations I needed, so no trade for me today. As you see, not much of a move on CAD pairs for CPI; however, notice the charts 90 minutes later when the Bank of Canada's monetary policy report suggested that interest rates could hike in 2022 and not their previous estimation in 2023. That means next month, this and other Canadian data becomes hot.

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