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Australia Employment Change April 15 2021

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  • Australia Employment Change April 15 2021

    What does the data mean to the market?

    There are two main lines of data on this release.

    Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

    Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.


    Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

    March 18 2021 We got a 0.5% reduction in Unemployment Rate with complimentary 58k positive Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.c...;s=GBPAUD;r=S5

    February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.c...;s=AUDNZD;r=M1

    January 21 2021 No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move!

    See Chart here:
    https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.c...;s=AUDNZD;r=M1




    My Forecasts For Today

    Empl Chg - Full Time 0
    Employment Change 35
    Unemployment Rate 5.7



    Today's Trade Plan

    The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

    If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

    If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.



    Tradable Pairs

    AUDJPY
    AUDNZD
    AUDUSD
    EURAUD
    GBPAUD


    Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

    Good luck!!

    James Thatcher

    Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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